On Monday, the 25th of November, the Transit Commission met to discuss the budget, which was carried to City Council with some amendments.
On the 13th of November, the City of Ottawa released its draft budget for 2025. The full Transit budget book can be found as a PDF here. A number of factors, especially a fare increase, caused outrage, leading to a strong public response. I'll be summarizing it in this article. I'll leave timestamps for different parts of the meeting, which can be found in this YouTube video.
Budget Time
Timestamp at 1:24:00.
The budget proposes an $856 million operating budget, which is an 11% increase over 2024. This includes cuts ... sorry, efficiencies from the implementation of New Ways to Bus, and extra cash to operate Stage 2 South and Stage 2 East.
The capital budget is $501 million, which includes $306 million for battery electric buses, alternatively referred to as BEBs, or ZEBs; zero-emissions buses; $75 million for the purchase of fifty used articulated diesel buses, more on this later; and $12.5 million to refurbish buses, unclear which buses.
To fund this, the city plans to increase the transit levy by eight percent, with a baseline five percent increase in fares, and more in some categories. The budget also includes a $36 million "placeholder," a phrase that councillors kept referring to during the meeting, of extra funding from upper levels of government. Reminder: we tried to get upper levels of government to fund a $39 million hole in 2023. It didn't work. Now we're back, hoping it works this time.
The New Deal for Ottawa was announced in March. Oops, should have asked then.
OC Transpo management brought forth $246 million worth of "savings," which can be seen in the screenshot below.
These "savings," actually cuts, include $164 million in capital spending reductions previously (a factor in how we got to this budget), $10 million from the 2021 cuts, $10 million from New Ways to Bus, $30 million in capital deferrals this year, and $2 million from the off-peak service cut on Line 1.
Fares, Fares, Fares
The budget proposes a 5% fare increase for the adult categories, an increase of $.20.
More alarming are the other adjustments, which indicate that the nickel-and-diming are in runaway mode. Free fares for 11/12 year olds, introduced just eighteen months ago, will be eliminated, with (yet) another special category of $2 fares for this group. The Youth discount on monthly passes were proposed to be eliminated, more on that when I get to motions. Free fares for seniors on Wednesdays and Sundays were to be ended, while the single-ride fare would increase by $.30, and the monthly pass would increase by $60, which is over 120%. Wait, what?
The U-Pass would also increase by 5% (this is important), the Equipass and Community Pass remain frozen, and various tickets and passes went up by 5% to match the increase in adult fare.
The increase to the seniors pass and removal of free fare days was criticized, with many delegates citing negative impacts to mobility, socialization, and accessibility for the senior population.
Both the Carleton University Student Association and the University of Ottawa Student Union sent representatives to speak about the U-Pass increase.
The CUSA representative, VP of research and advocacy Ana Clara Miranda Guimaeres, (timestamp 4:28:00) said that she was disappointed with the increase, saying that it "undercuts a mutual relationship of trust," and that the increase was in decided upon in bad faith. She added that "we will be calling upon students at large to oppose this decision," but noted that the CUSA had limited power, and said that there was no intention to cancel the U-Pass program.
The UOSU representive, president Delphine Robitaille, was less cautious (timestamp 5:29:00). The delegation began by calling it an "unlawful" increase, and said that OC Transpo had "neglected to inform our organization," which crucially, is a party to the U-Pass agreement, unlike the CUSA. If the 5% increase passed, the UOSU was required to put the continuation of the U-Pass program to a student referendum, and noted that OC Transpo was increasingly unpopular among students, citing the reduction of Line 1 service in the off-peak.
OC Transpo generates $19 million a year in revenue from the U-Pass at uOttawa.
At the end of the meeting, the commission voted to reduce the seniors pass to $78.50, a 60% increase, and to retain free fares on Wednesdays, funded by a reduction to the capital reserve. Additionally, U-Pass increases are being sent to consultation with the goal of meeting 2025 revenue targets. There are other amendments referred to council for approval. These are:
- to examine the possibility of expanding a U-Pass-style program to the high school level;
- to remove a few streets in Barrhaven from the Urban Transit Area (UTA), and to expand UTA service levels to new developments in the UTA;
- to reduce the seniors pass price to the same as the EquiPass. I personally support this motion; I believe that we should simplify the fare system, with the goal of having three tiers of service - free, discounted, and full - as a simpler fare system improves clarity for new riders, and;
- to keep the youth pass at current rates.
Staff Update
Timestamp at 15:50.
Staff said that we would have a "firm date" on the opening of Stage 2 South at a technical briefing on the 6th of December. Renée Amilcar said that the line's completion "will not be rushed," a contrast to the hushed up process behind testing on Stage 1.
Ridership was 7 million in September and 6.7 million in October, compared to a forecast of 7.1 and 7.0 million respectively.
On-time performance was 71% on less frequent routes, while "regularity," part of OC Transpo's scheme to move the goalposts at least once a year, was 80% on the more frequent routes. Any analysis of service on these frequent routes reveals a different picture, with high levels of bunching and poor schedule performance. Presenting one average hides problems in the agency's delivery of service.
Para Transpo's service delivery was 91% in October.
Service delivery was 99.2% on the LRT, and 97.4% on the bus system. The term, "service delivery," is a term used across the industry, but OC Transpo's specific use is misleading. Their graph proclaims "2.1% under target"; from the customer perspective, another way is to say that the target is 0.5% cancellations, and the actual figure, 2.6%, is 5.2x above the target. Lies and statistics.
The worst performing routes are the 6, 11, and R2 with a cancellation rate of 8.3%, 7.9%, and 5.8%, respectively. Staff said that they cancel frequent routes more often, to preserve service on less frequent routes.
Of the 2.6% cancellations in October, 38% were from "on-street adjustments," 27% from operator availability, 19% in lack of buses, and 15% from mechanical breakdowns. Staff blamed cancellations on bus breakdowns and LRT replacement service, yet 1.7% of service (3.4x the stated goal) is cancelled for other reasons.
55% of the fleet is over 15 years old, staff said, which is the usual retirement age for buses. This should have raised alarm bells in 2021, when these buses were 12 years old, and procurement process should have started then.
Time has been known to humanity since the 1970s, if not earlier. This was entirely predictable, but we collectively decided to ignore the problem and hope it went away. Now, the ghost of deferred capital improvements past has come back to haunt us. (sigh)
Everybody Hates OC Transpo?
The turnout at a meeting of Transit Commission, normally a bureaucratic affair, follows similarly large turnout at September's meeting after OC Transpo blindsided us with off-peak cuts on Line 1 (which was, hilariously, "accidentally" leaked). The City of Ottawa cannot ignore that there is widespread anger at OC Transpo, one which will continue to grow as service deteriorates. .
Reversing this trend requires political leadership, management that cares, and honest analysis from the City of Ottawa and OC Transpo. All three seem to be missing inaction.
And the public disappointment with OC Transpo will continue to grow.
Wow, that was depressing. Let's hope for some good news on Stage 2 soon. I'll be back with another article. Until then, stay warm and stay safe.
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