Notably, the 25 does not; this is also by far the busiest route in the area. Per-trip ridership in Orleans is noticeably lower than in the urban areas, despite the long runtimes. A few routes have higher midday ridership - the 25 (notably), 32, 131, and 138, a function of higher peak service. Many other routes have low ridership off-peak.
Route 25
Route 25 is the highest ridership route in Orleans, with nearly 30% of all transit trips in the area made on this route.
As of September 2024, it is the 10th busiest route on the network, from 11th place in 2023. Ridership grew 8.9% over this period.
Saturday and Sunday ridership are nearly identical, and around 40% of weekday ridership. This pattern appears at all times of day, so I think this is an intrinsic part of operating on suburban Innes Road.
Notably, weekday midday ridership per trip is high, as is evening ridership, despite (or maybe because) of the high frequencies for the latter. Evening ridership is relatively high on weekends as well.
Route 28
Route 28 is the 59th busiest route in the system, from 62nd in 2023. Ridership grew 17.5% this year. Route 28 operates a different service pattern on evenings and weekends, running straight down Bearbrook, instead of its daytime pattern looping through Blackburn Hamlet. Despite consistent service levels, route 28's evening and weekend ridership is unusually low, and I think that the route's changing service has to do with this: to increase ridership, OC Transpo should remove the Bearbrook service pattern, running all trips on the loop-the-loop through Blackburn.
Good news. For New Ways to Bus, it's partly becoming permanent. The new route 24 will take Chapel Hill and Blackburn passengers on a trip around the east end, ensuring that nobody has a reliable and fast trip.
Route 30
The 30 is the 31st busiest route, the same as September 2023. Ridership grew 9.9% in the year prior. Route 30 falls below the system average for both midday and evening boardings, although the ridership per trip is good. Weekend ridership is also low. The most notable feature is the very high PM Peak ridership, the highest per-trip ridership of any PM Peak service in Orleans.
Route 31
Route 31 is the 111th busiest bus route in the city, from 114th place (tied with the 186) in 2023. Ridership growth was 24.8%. The route's per-trip ridership is around 10, but I am interested in seeing the ridership patterns on this route; it services a section of St. Joseph with no other service, which includes an old age home and the RCMP's "technical operations" in Ottawa.
It is possible that a regular schedule could improve ridership on this route. New Ways to Bus will remove this route.
Route 32
Route 32 operates an irregular schedule off-peak, but provides regular peak service on Sunview and to Mer Bleue in peak periods.
The route is OC Transpo's 70th busiest route, down from 69th in 2023. Ridership grew 19% over this period.
New Ways to Bus does not propose improvements to its schedule. One improvement I would like to see is an analysis of off-peak demand. Despite the poor midday service, per-trip ridership remains strong in the midday, falling in the PM Peak.
Route 33
Route 33 is the 62nd busiest route, from 64th the year before. Ridership growth was 11.6%.
New Ways to Bus proposes weekend service on this route. However, despite 30 minute service in the midday, off-peak riders per trip is in the single digits, with ridership only growing in the peaks, when the route extends to Blair, acting as a partial trunk (along with the 35).
It is also possible that a direct connection to Blair can induce ridership, but that is not being proposed either.
I am skeptical that their proposed schedule will gather the ridership they think it will.
Route 34
Route 34 is the 53rd busiest route, up from 54th in 2023. Ridership grew 12.5% since 2023.
Like the other routes, weekend ridership is low; per-trip ridership is higher in the peaks, especially the AM (PM demand, I believe, is diverting onto other routes, especially the 30), but the weekday off-peak ridership is fairly good.
Route 35
The 35 is the 37th busiest route in the network, compared to 36th in 2023. Ridership grew just 3.9% in 2023-2024.
Like most Orleans routes, weekend ridership is slow. However, weekday ridership is fairly good off-peak, with fairly high boardings across the route.
I do wonder how many of these trips do not leave the Blair <-> Place d'Orléans corridor, as the nearby comparisons, especially the 33 and 37, show anemic ridership.
Route 37
Route 37 is the network's 109th busiest route, tied with the 84. This is down from 105th in 2023, despite growth of 4.3%.
Ridership per trip is extremely low at all periods, peaking at just 3.9 riders/trip in the midday, and less at peak periods. Each loop is considered two trips, but even a combined calculation produces 7.8 riders/trip in the midday, which is really low. This route will be removed with New Ways to Bus.
Route 38
Route 38 dropped from 53rd to 54th busiest route over the last year. Ridership growth was 10.7% from 2023 to 2024.
The 38 has healthier weekend ridership than many Orleans routes, and fairly high midday ridership. Evening ridership is pretty average.
Route 39
The 39 is the network's 27th busiest route, from 28th last year. This comes with ridership growth of 13.3%.
For being a combined trunk/local route, the 39's ridership per trip is quite low in the off-peak, at just 20 riders; peak ridership is much higher, in the forties in both peaks.
The 39's weekend ridership hovers at around 40%, with Sundays rising slightly above Saturdays. Not coincidentally, the shoulder periods (mornings and evenings) are when the 35's service drops, indicating to me that many people use the 35 instead of the 39 on the Blair-to-Place trunk.
The route shows a large drop in ridership in the midday, with a very peak-y pattern.
Route 131
The 131 is OC Transpo's 56th busiest bus route, no change from 2023. Ridership grew 3.2% in this period.
The 131 has relatively low ridership, around 20 boardings per trip, on a long runtime. Being an internal Orleans circulator, rather than a Line 1 connection, its off-peak ridership is fairly good compared to the peak periods, but I suspect this is from its low peak ridership than some special formula that increases off-peak ridership. Weekend ridership is fairly high as well though.
New Ways to Bus will split this route into two, but with this kind of ridership, I don't know how well the two descendant routes will fare.
Route 138
The 138 is the 68th busiest route in the system, same as 2023. Ridership grew 9.9% in the past year.
Like the 131, the 138 is primarily an Orleans circulator, and like the 131, ridership is low. Riders per trip is in the mid-teens, and while this could be attributed to poor service, weekend and off-peak ridership is also low. New Ways to Bus will shorten Route 138 to a Hiawatha Park shuttle.
Connexion Routes
As a different route structure dedicated to different purposes, I have analysed the connexion routes separately.
One oddity of the connexion network is that PM ridership is 80% of AM ridership, when on the overall network, the pattern is the other way around, with lower AM ridership. This holds true for every route except the 222. I believe this has to do with how people ride transit, as people can time themselves to departing buses in the morning, but board more frequent services in the afternoon, ones with a longer walk.
This holds true for the entire connexion network, not just Orleans.
Route 221
Route 221 is the 102nd busiest route, the same as the year prior, with 18.6% ridership growth.
Riders-per-trip reaches around 20-25, which is okay for the Orleans connexion network. I am interested in seeing a breakdown between Cumberland and Cardinal Creek. The latter, which I think is in the Urban Transit Area, may have the population required for an all-day service, even if it's just an extension of the 39 trips which currently end at Trim.
The community, which had 1300 residents in the 2021 census and no doubt more now, will not receive extra service in New Ways to Bus.
Route 222
Route 222 is the 118th busiest bus route, tied with the 198. This is an increase from 2023, when it was the 125th busiest route, and in both cases, the city's lowest performing connexion route. Ridership grew 33.7% from September 2023.
Riders per trip is low, at just 10 riders in the AM and 15 in the PM. Given the reality of post-COVID travel patterns, I think it may be worth asking residents of the Rural Transit Area A if they wish to keep their service; these routes are among the least busy in the network, and their buses could be used more effectively in the UTA.
Route 228
The 228 is the 104th busiest route, up from 2023, when it was 106th, in a tie with the 231. Growth was 24.3%. Like most of the connexion routes, the 228's ridership is higher in the AM than the PM.
The East Urban Community in this area is beginning buildout, and it may be worth investigating, with the imminent opening of Stage 2 East, better ways to serve this community.
Route 231
Route 231 is OC Transpo's 103rd busiest bus route, up from 106th in 2023 when it was tied with the 228. Ridership growth was 25.3%.
This route's PM decrease nearly offsets the 131's PM increase, and I think that poor service is driving people to take a trunk route and transfer to the 131.
With New Ways to Bus, route 231 will be eliminated.
Route 232
Route 232 is the 98th busiest route, down from 97th in 2023. Over the period, ridership growth was 11.3%.
Route 232 will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus.
Route 234
Route 234 is the 82nd busiest route, from 85th in 2023. Ridership grew 21% over this time period.
Ridership per trip is in the 30s, and New Ways to Bus proposes to keep this route. It services large parts of Orleans that would otherwise see poor local service, which I think contributes to even AM/PM ridership, and its relatively high per-trip ridership.
Route 236
Route 236 is the third busiest connexion route, and the 74th overall, with no change from 2023. Ridership grew 21.5%.
This route is only about five minutes faster than the parallel 35; however, boardings per trip are in the 40s on both routes, and I worry about overcrowding once New Ways to Bus is implemented and the 236 is removed, especially since the 35 will not see service improvements.
Route 237
Route 237 is OC Transpo's 106th busiest route, tied with the 264. This is up from 2023, when it was the 109th busiest and tied with the 199. Growth has been 24.3% this year.
Like on many routes, the AM/PM difference can be found on the parallel local route, the 38. While New Ways to Bus will retain this route, I think that improving 38 frequency would be a bigger benefit to riders.
Conclusion
As expected, Orleans shows much lower ridership than the urban areas, with lower ridership on off-peak service and frequency splitting across routes. In light of this, there have been some good decisions and some puzzling ones made in advance of New Ways to Bus.
The 25 makes up over a quarter of ridership in this area, and OC Transpo would do well to improve service on that route. It seems that the one-seat ride to Blair is very valuable, but the network must change with Stage 2 East, and I would prefer routes intersect at Place d'Orleans to provide for inter-Orleans trips, rather than copying the downtown routes, where we have terminated bus routes with no consideration of a central transfer point.
I am not entirely sure what the next ridership analysis will look like - the other areas are harder to define and still shifting - but I think it will be soon.
Take care out there.
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