Route 41 service snapshot - 3 to 30 November

Route 41 is a frequent route that runs from Billings Bridge to St. Laurent. The route is the primary service on Heron Road, Walkley Road, and St. Laurent Boulevard, and services Herongate and Elmvale, both low-income communities with relatively high transit use. 

The westbound service towards Billings Bridge is generally reliable, but the eastbound service towards St. Laurent has a severe mismatch between scheduled and actual runtimes, falling below the 5th percentile for much of the day. The usual afternoon peak reliability issues also make an appearance. 

Priorities at City Hall: OC Transpo in 2026

As we roll out of 2025 and into 2026, transit in Ottawa drifts forwards without a coherent vision. 

OC Transpo is changing from the Transitway days, and it is not clear what it will become. The first part of Stage 2 opened last year, with another set to open this year; meanwhile, the bus network is in an apparent state of meltdown, and with one problem solved (operator shortage), another has appeared (fleet shortage). It remains to be seen whether the situation will improve or not. 

This year is also a municipal election year. As 20% of the city budget and the most visible signal of dysfunction at the City of Ottawa, transit will be a headline issue this campaign season. It is therefore essential that candidates and City institutions create and present a coherent vision of transit. 

Transit Committee - 24 November, 2025

On the 24th of November, Transit Committee met for its sixth and final meeting of the year. The meeting link, for those interested, was uploaded to YouTube here. 

As the last Transit Committee meeting of the year, discussion centered around the budget. It includes $47 million in funding from the provincial government that may or not materialize, a small fare increase, and "savings and efficiencies." There was also some discussion around a David Hill inquiry on standardizing the transfer window following reports that commuters were paying double fares for a single trip and a Wilson Lo motion to staff to procure articulated diesel buses. 

Over twenty delegates appeared before the Committee on the budget, and a few delegated on a Wilson Lo motion to allow diesel bus procurement in the coming years. 

I have posted the documents for this update below. 

• 2026 Draft Operating and Capital Budget
• Multi-Year Budget
• Response to Inquiry: Central Park High School Routes
• Response to Inquiry: Line 1 and 2 Regulatory Oversight
• Inquiries and Motions ending 13 November, 2025
• Motion - 2026 Bus Procurement

Ultimately, the budget passed 8-1, with only Riley Brockington voting against and Marty Carr dissenting on the fare schedule. 

Route 7 service snapshot - 29 September to 26 October

Route 7 is a frequent line that runs from St. Laurent to Carleton University on the northern segment of St. Laurent, the Hemlock-Beechwood corridor, and Bank Street, an arrangement which has not changed substantially since the 1980s. This is one of two Bank Street routes, which is currently being contested amidst a proposal to convert two lanes of parking to bus lanes, as well as a plan to introduce bus lanes to St. Laurent. 

Route 7 is among the busiest of OC Transpo routes, but suffers from the usual problems of a high rate of cancellations and buses that do not appear on-schedule or on-headway. 

The example of Route 7 is a continual reminder of how poorly schedules create erratic service, both the pitfalls and benefits of route management, and how reliability can differ on the same route at different times of day. 

As usual, the data for this analysis comes from Transsee. 

Budget Holes and Money Pits

The draft 2026 budget has finally been released, after Mayor Mark Sutcliffe bragged about it being the most transparent budget in the history of the city. It's true - hot air is transparent, and it creates mirages of fiscal responsibility and responsible governance. 

The mayor's press statements brag about fiscal responsibility and transparency, but the transit budget stands in opposition to his empty claims. Among the misleading or inaccurate statements are a third  "one-time" expectation for $47 million of "required" funding from upper levels of government which has never materialized ever; fare revenue increases bordering on magical; and the hiding of OC Transpo's subsidy behind the aforementioned false numbers and misleading budgeting. 

With this budget, the total operating cost reaches $939 million in 2026. Despite this, there is zero attempt to reorganize scheduling, a pathetic attempt at transit priority measures, and little attempt at financial transparency, which creates true image of fiscal indulgence and a lack of regard for long-term planning. 

OC Transpo will require even more money over the coming few years. Overprojecting revenue has become an annual ritual at City Hall - with a hostile mayoralty or province in charge, transit runs the risk of becoming a target. 

 

The City must right the fiscal ship, come clean about the looming danger, and City Council be resolute in demanding that this be done with the utmost transparency and accountability. 

Route 70 "snapshot" - 8 September to 5 October

This article analyzes the service quality on Route 70 throughout the month of September. Unlike many other routes, this is a local milk run route from Limebank to Barrhaven Centre, Citigate, and Fallowfield, and will feature slightly different charts than normal. It was formed out of pieces of old Routes 170 and 171 during New Ways to Bus this April. 

As always, data comes from Transsee. 

Counting Buses: A Frequent Network

Frequent transit service offers many benefits for both transit riders and the city, and these are increasingly recognized by both transit authorities and by transit advocates. 

It has become a trend to designate a subset of transit routes as a "frequent transit network" or by some similar name. These range from half hourly services in some American Sunbelt sprawlburbs to ten minute networks provided in cities like Toronto and Sydney. 

With the benefits of high frequency in mind, it is important to ensure that the transit system actually runs frequent service, as opposed to changing the signs on a route with infrequent service. 

Improving Bus Service Reliability Report (Transit Committee) - 11 September, 2025

As part of Transit Committee's motion requesting a plan to achieve reliable service by the end of 2027, staff presented a report on improving bus service reliability at Transit Committee on 11 September.  

The relevant document is the report, linked in PDF form. 

OC Transpo defines reliability with three headline statistics, which bundles the entire network into one number. The trips delivery metric measures the percentage of trips which were not cancelled and ran at all; regularity measures the gap between buses on frequent routes [it is not clear if this is applied to frequent routes outside frequent operating periods], with a wide band of 40% allowance; and punctuality, which is on-time performance for less frequent routes, with an allowance of one minute early/five minutes late. 

Both Transit Committee and OC Transpo love to talk about their commitment to reliable service for Ottawa residents. But OC Transpo has a poor track record of presenting good information to Transit Committee that would enable action; Transit Committee has a poor track record of taking action to improve reliability. To improve bus service reliability, Council must begin to understand that there is no free lunch, and make the difficult choices to improve service.