Route 14 service analysis: 25th November - 22nd December

This article analyses the service of Route 14 from the 25th November to the 22nd December. Data from Transsee. Here are the theoretical headway charts (it will soon be clear why I say theoretical): 

Cancellations

Over the period of two weeks, Route 14 "achieved" an average of 8.9% EB cancellations and 8.3% WB cancellations. As always, hiding the figures in a single average obscures the range of cancellations, which in this case runs up to 20% on some days. Here is the chart: 

Headway Adherence

Going EB: 

Eastbound cancellations are very high in the AM Peak, drop in the midday, but rise after noon to average nearly a 50% cancellation rate by the PM Peak. 

Additionally, the route displays very high bunching during both peaks, with a drop in the midday. Unlike some others routes I have analysed, the 14 shows high bunching continuing into the evenings, with a deviation of up to ten minutes even in the late nights. 

Westbound is just as variable. Bunching is extremely high in the AM Peak up to 9:00, but drops in the midday. Like the eastbound, cancellations and bunching rise to an extremely high level, and while cancellations drop in time for the PM Peak (unlike the EB), bunching does not, to the point where the headway deviation nearly equals the real headway itself. 

On-time performance and string diagrams

This analysis will focus on week one of the time period, 25th November to 29th November. 

 

From the overall charts, the eastbound trips lose time on the schedule from Tunney's Pasture to Rideau, then begins to bunch east of Rideau. Performance is bad in all three periods, but the AM Peak and midday both show very high early arrivals, indicating a severe bunching problem. In the PM Peak, most trips are just pure late. Very late. 

 

Westbound is not much better. AM Peak performance is better, with much fewer very late trips, but bunching appears in the midday, and in the PM Peak, there are serious problems starting at St. Laurent, which become much worse towards Rideau, with "stable" on-time performance west of the Cummings Bridge. 

From the string diagrams, the problems described above become evident. Spacing is irregular in the AM Peak, with some cancellations and some bunching, but this smooths out by 10:00. After 14:00 especially, bunching becomes a serious problem, with virtually all trips running in bunches of two or three or four, in addition to many cancelled trips. This only abates after the end of fifteen minute service, at which point the service is too infrequent to see serious problems. 

Some problem spots: 

• Parkdale crossing Wellington all times of day in both directions
• Approaching Rideau Station in both directions
• Slow travel times across the entire route, especially in the PM
• The Cummings Bridge crossing and the turn onto North River is a problem, especially in the PM going east. 

Link to the entire week's string charts here. 

Weekend on-time performance is very poor as well. The weekend analysed is that of week three; the 14th and 15th of December. On the "farside" of Rideau from the terminus, both directions see just 50% on-time performance with early trips indicating bunching. String diagrams for both days here. 

    

 
  

The strings indicate problems with bunching on weekends as well. Especially in the afternoons, many trips bunch, leaving large gaps between them. Travel times are variable too, which can be seen in the late afternoon of these charts, especially around Rideau. 

Travel times

In the AM, travel time variability is somewhat not under control, with around 7-8 minutes range for the upper two quartiles in both segments. 

In the PM, the problem is much worse, with higher travel times combining with much more variability, sometimes reaching twenty minutes or more for the upper two quartiles. 

 

Westbound is slightly more in control, without the crazy swings of the eastbound; but the upper quartile uniformly has a large range in the AM Peak. 

The PM variability is extremely high, with the y-axis of the Rideau-to-Tunney's chart going above 75 minutes; the St. Laurent-to-Rideau portion of the route displays similarly high variability, over ten minutes in the best of weeks. 

Thoughts

Route 14's schedule, which can be partly seen in the charts, has extremely high cancellations, leading to ridiculous bunching and generally slow travel times. Given that this route travels across high density areas with less space for improvements compared to Baseline or Merivale, the solution requires less concrete and more soft treatments. 

Probably better designed schedules, with improved enforcement of bus priority on Rideau (or close that segment to cars altogether) and spare drivers and buses to pull onto the route in case of cancellations, which would help avoid bunching and extremely slow trips. 

There won't be more route analysis until the beginning of February, as I intend to take a break away from route analysis, and I need a period of four weeks to do any route analysis, with no intention of breaking it into two portions.

I will, however, hopefully take the time to start analysing ridership patterns. Keep an eye out, and stay safe and stay warm out there. I'll see you next time.