It's 2025, the first segment of Stage 2 has launched, and another network semi-redesign is imminent. OC Transpo is in crisis mode again, with federal dollars not appearing, a crisis of confidence, and a city that wants to cut, cut, cut.
What next?
In this post, I will set out some priority items that City Council and OC Transpo should work towards. These represent my opinion only; but I believe that their implementation will go a long way in making Ottawa a transit city.
Ottawa to City Council: it's all about service
Service is the most important part of transit; it's the "product" being offered to travellers. The better the service, the more appealing the OC Transpo product is, and the higher the ridership will be.
We don't seem to have caught on.
New Ways to Bus includes improvements to some areas, but cuts to other areas, because the city does not want to increase bus service. Its effect will be positive, but limited, when there are so few hours to be redistributed.
Reliability remains as appalling as ever, with regular cancellations far above admitted levels, and complete unreliability. Renée Amilcar herself has admitted that New Ways to Bus schedules will be based off 2023 traffic levels.
The 2025 capital budget includes items to improve reliability. Those that could have immediate effect on the user experience, do not exist. The rest will be years away: new buses, new old-buses, and light rail west. Transit priority measures got just $2.3 million, though other capital projects not funded out of the transit budget may include transit priority (such as the upcoming Baseline rebuild).
To cover holes in the budget, we've deferred capital spending to next year, when we'll have to do the song and dance all over again. Scheduling improvements and customer information have been pushed to next year. Meanwhile, OC Transpo potentially faces a vote on the U-Pass programs at Carleton and UOttawa.
OC Transpo is in crisis, and it's time for change.
Agenda Item #1: OC Transpo needs a new governance structure
OC Transpo's mandate is to "[deliver] efficient, courteous and cost-effective public transit."
This doesn't need to change. What does need to change is the way the department is managed and overseen by City Council. This is not the most achievable item on the list, but it is the most important. Many of the other changes cannot be fulfilled without reforming OC Transpo's governance structure.
First, OC Transpo needs to become independent from the City of Ottawa. Currently, it is operated as a City Department. This means that City Council has direct oversight, as seen by the budget circus - they have final control over everything from service levels on specific routes to capital spending allocations.
OC Transpo needs independence from the one-to-four year ambitions on City Council. OC Transpo needs to return to being a commission, similar to the TTC. The board, which in Toronto is made of six councilors and four citizens (an ideal arrangement may vary in Ottawa), has final control over day-to-day operations, and City Council does no more than provide guides towards the kind of transit they want to have.
This does not free OC Transpo from funding constraints. Their subsidy is what City Council decides. But it frees them from having to cater to the whims of the city councilors, who are susceptible to listening to the loudest groups, allowing them to pursue the best solution with less political considerations.
We need a transit agency that's not afraid of making bold decisions, even dumb ones.
Agenda Item #2: improving reliability
The reliability of OC Transpo's service is poor. Transit has a reputation for unreliability, and fixing this is key to improving service and increasing ridership. Luckily, this is a low-resource, low-controversy problem to fix, and does not require structural changes in OC Transpo's unspoken, unofficial mandate.
Unfortunately, priority measures are off the table this year, given the capital budget, and new buses have a lead time, so they cannot be deployed in a matter of months. There are other tools to use though: Renée Amilcar has said repeatedly that current schedules are based off 2022 traffic levels, and New Ways to Bus is based on 2023 traffic. If I can pull real-time information and display them in an organized fashion, OC Transpo can do so as well. This is an easy win.
Another change, though with no new resources it would require minor route cuts, would be to increase recovery time, leaving scheduled time for operators to catch up from delays, preventing the very common delay propagation seen on some routes like Route 12.
More articles on OC Transpo's reliability are on my own radar this year, including an article on interlining and lots of service analysis. Look for the former in spring, once New Ways to Bus launches.
Agenda Item #3: wanted, transparency and accountability
OC Transpo is a black box. Data is shared to the public irregularly, with methodologies withheld and some data not shared at all. Additionally, route changes are somehow simultaneously too publicly-driven and completely opaque, driven by "whoever shouts loudest" rather than informed public comments periods.
First, OC Transpo needs to stop fooling the public, and stop fooling itself. The more analysis I conduct, the more I believe their figures for on-time performance and cancellations are completely fictional. This is not helpful to the public, and this is not helpful for OC Transpo's internal processes either. End the practice of "pulling" routes from the schedule to reduce the reported cancellation figure, and assign staff to accurately measure granular performance data, which should be made public at an open data portal on a regular basis.
Next, OC Transpo needs a long-term capital plan, such as the TTC's 10 and 15-year capital plan. Even if we cannot afford it, and to be clear, we cannot, a transparent plan would allow open public debate about what we want OC Transpo to be, and how to pay for it. When the capital budget only shows programs up to 2028, a long-term investment strategy will be impossible, driven by short-sighted cuts rather than a targeted program to improve the customer experience, increase ridership, and create an efficient and effective transit system.
We also need transparency in the route change system. The intial Bus Route Review, now New Ways to Bus, looked very different in 2023. But we don't know why each change was made. Was there staff review of data? Was it driven by the loudest constituents and the loudest councilors? Whatever the reasoning, it should be public. Additionally, staff should be regularly reviewing routes for performance, with a regular consultation process for informing the public and reviewing changes, such as the Transplan process, a 2000s-era process in which OC Transpo would ask the transit community on feedback for route changes every year.
Finally, we need independence, so that OC Transpo can be free to propose improvements. How much would reliability cost? $5 million a year? An order of magnitude more? An order of magnitude less? How about evening frequent service on key routes like the 6, 61, or 88? It may be that the cost is low, and we haven't seen the proposals for a better service. Or the cost may be high, but right now, there's no discussion and no ability for people to decide on what kind of service they want.
Agenda Item #4: transit priority
Ottawa needs more transit priority, and not just limp projects such as the Old Ottawa South bus lane. Projects like the Carling Avenue Transit Priority Measures, approved eight years (!) ago, languish, while we spend billions on new capital projects.
Transit priority isn't just about a war on cars, as dear Mayor may suggest. They allow transit vehicles to run consistently, reducing schedule uncertainty and improving reliability; they improve travel times, and provide increased economic and social connections, while reducing pollution and emissions. Yet transit priority received just $2.3 million in the capital budget this year, with a total budget of $14.6 million to 2028.
This isn't enough. City Council complains that Stage 3 is too expensive. Transit priority is relatively cheap; the Baseline interim transit priority project will cost just $18 million, includes a major intersection reconstruction, and yet, we're not pushing for these beneficial projects across the city, focusing on expensive investments instead.
Transit priority on every new-build road, integrated route planning in the development phase, and an aggressive transit priority program on older streets should be initiated immediately. The benefits will be enormous, and affordable too.
Agenda Item #5: commit to improving service, instead of standing still
Ottawa is a growing city. The population grew 8.9% from 2016 to 2021, with more in the future, yet the plan is to keep the bus fleet the same, while the city expands outwards and needs more transit service. This is arguably the hardest item, because the city is loathe to increasing taxes. But the benefits to residents and the economy alike: fewer cars, faster travel, a connected economy, and less pollution, are immense. The City of Ottawa needs to adopt a growth strategy, aiming to increase service across the new developments, adding buses where existing ones are full, and speeding up routes that already exist.
Then, and only then, can Ottawa be a truly transit first city.
Thoughts
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