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20 February 2025

Ridership Analysis: Nepean, Part I

The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in its original form, in this PDF.  


Introduction

This article is the first in a two-part series, split in a completely arbitrary fashion because the bars do not fit on the graph without making them small and impossible to read. This article will analyse ridership patterns on routes <11>, [50], <51>, <53>, (57), [58], (61), (62), (63), [64], (74), (75), [153], [154], [155], and [158]. Part two will cover routes <80>, [81], [82], [83], [84], <85>, [86], <87>, <88>, [89], [96], <111>, [186], [187], (258), and (282). 


Overview

Nepean, like the Alta Vista area, is a mixed zone with both high-ridership trunks as well as lower ridership feeders and limited service routes. Some of the highest ridership routes run in Nepean, as well as the lowest. 

Ridership growth in Nepean is somewhat above the system average for both groups. Most routes analysed in this article showed increased ridership, with the exception of the 153 and 154; however, the range is from "barely anything" to "quite large." 

Weekend ridership is about average. This article analyses routes that are both suburban trunks (such as the 60s and the 74/75), as well as urban trunks in Westboro. These routes show a wide range across the ratios of weekend ridership. 
Off-peak ridership is average. Due to the range of Nepean's built form, some areas see higher off-peak ridership than others. 

Routes

Route 11
Route 11 is a trunk route on Richmond Avenue, running through Chinatown, Westboro, and towards Bayshore. It was the 12th busiest route, down from 10th; with ridership growth of 1.5% since 2023. 

Like most trunk routes in the area, Route 11 shows strong all-day and weekend ridership. Daytime ridership sits around 50 riders/trip, which is moderate for such a long route, but its weekend ridership is among the best in the network. For now. 

As discussed in the Inner Southwest article, there are significant upcoming cuts to weekend service. Be prepared for overcrowded buses, which will abate as ridership drops. Do note the termini in the charts. 


Route 50
Route 50 is a local route, running on Churchill Avenue, through the Woodward Industrial Area, and on Navaho/Iris through Bel-Air. It was the 60th busiest route, up from 62nd in 2023. Ridership grew 15.4% over this time. 

Ridership per trip is okay, given the travel times. In the AM, there are roughly 30 riders/trip; this figure is 15 in the midday, 25 in the PM, and 10 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is a low percentage of weekdays, but there is no Sunday service and the Saturday service is questionable at best. 

New Ways to Bus will chop this route into pieces. Churchill loses service; Woodward becomes part of Route 53; and Navaho/Iris will be subsumed into Route 81. 


Route 51
Route 51 is a frequent route running from Tunney's Pasture, through Westboro and on Dovercourt, to Carlingwood and to Britannia, with a short turn at Lincoln Fields. In 2024, it was the 35th busiest route, with no change from 2023. Ridership grew 11.7% in that year. 

Ridership does not fill buses. In the AM, ridership per-trip is 30; this figure is 20 in the midday, 25 in the PM, and 10 in the evenings. On weekends, Route 51 sees average ridership ratios, despite good Saturday (but reduced Sunday) service. 

New Ways to Bus retains the route, but reduces frequencies. 


Route 53
Route 53 is a frequent route between Carlington and Tunney's Pasture. It was the 46th busiest route, down from 45th in 2023; ridership grew 10.7% during this time. 

Ridership is low, given the route's length. In the AM, ridership per trip is 20; this falls to 10 in the midday, 15 in the afternoon peak, and 5 in the evening. Weekend ridership is a little below average. 

New Ways to Bus will completely change the route, taking it away from the high-density heart of Carlington to run towards Woodward, down Merivale, and through Medhurst to Baseline. Frequency will decrease, but it will run to more destinations ... slower than the parallel Route 80. 


Route 57
Route 57 is a Transitway route, running from Tunney's Pasture to Lincoln Fields, then on Carling and Richmond to Bayshore. It then curves through Bells Corners to reach the NDHQ at Moodie. It was the 21st busiest route in 2024, down from 20th the year prior, with ridership growth of 4.1%. 

The route's performance is good. Ridership ranges from 40/trip in the peak periods, to 15 in the evenings, with around 25 riders/trip in the midday. Evening and weekend ridership is also high. 

New Ways to Bus will deliver a substantial axe in off-peak service, both in the evenings and weekends. And unfortunately, Bells Corners service will not improve. 


Route 58
Route 58 is a local route running on Iris west of the Transitway, through Lisa Park, Crystal Beach, and to DND Carling. It was the 48th busiest route, up from 52nd in 2023. Ridership growth was 22.0% that year. 

The route's performance is average. Its riders per trip ranges from 35 in the AM peak, to 25 in the midday and PM, and 10 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is above average. 

New Ways to Bus will run the western portion as parts of Routes 81 and 82, with the remaining route as a stub between Bayshore and DND Carling, rather than, say, something sensible like a Bells Corners <-> Crystal Beach through route. Service will remain unchanged, but with the elimination of the 258 for peak period direction travelers. 


Route 61
Route 61 is a rapid route, running through Lincoln Fields and Bayshore on its way to Kanata. In 2024, it was the 18th busiest route, up from 21st in 2023; ridership grew 14.4% over that period. 

As a trunk route, Route 61 shows okay ridership in the middays, when it runs frequently; this is not really the case on evenings and weekends. Its ridership per trip is around 30 in the daytime, dropping to 20 in the evenings. Weekend ridership, when service halves (more-or-less), is around 50% of weekday ridership. 

This ridership is poor. However, it's necessary for the Transitway system to work, as the route is a trunk. New Ways to Bus will introduce reductions in peak capacity at the same time we will reduce the number of Connexion routes by four. 


Route 62
Route 62 is a rapid route, running on the West Transitway between Tunney's Pasture and Bayshore on its way to Kanata. It was the 30th busiest route with no change in ridership from 2023; ridership growth was 12.0%.

This route, which has similar service all-day, has 50-55 riders/trip all day, except the evening (with 15 rides/trip). Weekend ridership is very high on this route. 

New Ways to Bus will not make major modifications to this route within Nepean. It will, however, be branded as "frequent," despite running exactly zero frequent trips. 


Route 63
Route 63 is a rapid route running from Tunney's Pasture to Bayshore and towards Kanata North. It was the 34th busiest route in 2024, with no change from the year prior. Ridership grew 10.9%. 

Route 63's frequency split with the 64 reduces effective frequency on the West Transitway trunk, with the service theoretically running the same headways as the 74/75 combination, but with more variability, since service is split across four infrequent routes. Its ridership sat at around 30 riders/trip all day, dropping to 15 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is below average. 

New Ways to Bus will not substantially modify trunk service on Route 63, but will eliminate Route 64, reducing frequencies on the trunk. 



Route 64
Route 64 is a local route parallel to Route 63, running on the West Transitway towards Kanata North. It was the 47th busiest route in 2024, with no change. Ridership grew 8.8%. 

Route 64, as noted, splits its frequency with Route 63. As such, the route is going away with New Ways to Bus, with no corresponding increases on Route 63. Isn't it called New Way to Bus, not Fewer Ways to Bus ... ? 

AM and midday ridership sits at 25 riders/trip, while PM ridership is 20 riders/trip and evening ridership is 15 riders/trip. There is no weekend service. 


Route 74
Route 74 is a rapid route on the Southwest Transitway from Tunney's Pasture to Baseline and beyond. The beyond, in this case, being Barrhaven and Riverside South. It was the 16th busiest route in 2024, with no change from 2023. Ridership grew 12.9%. 

Route 74 overlaps with Route 75 throughout most of its route in Nepean. The route sees around 50 riders/trip in the AM and midday, 45 in the PM peak, and 30 riders/trip in the evenings. Ridership is far below average on weekends, at just 30% of weekday ridership on Saturdays and 15% on Sundays. 

New Ways to Bus will not implement major changes, with only a minor schedule cut on Saturdays. 


Route 75
Route 75 is a major trunk route from Tunney's Pasture to Fallowfield, towards Barrhaven Centre. It was the 4th busiest route, up from 5th in 2023; ridership grew 8.7%. 

As a major trunk route, Route 75 is very busy. It has 75 riders/trip in the AM, 70 in the midday, 80 in the PM Peak (there's the reverse of the frequency problem with riders choosing a low frequency trip in the mornings and a higher frequency one in the afternoon), and 40 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is around 60% of weekday ridership on both Saturdays and Sundays; the gap is largest at the peak periods, but it's lower in the midday and evenings as well. 

New Ways to Bus will not change this route in Nepean, and service is staying similar. 


Route 153
Route 153 is a local route, connecting the towers on Richmond to Carlingwood and Tunney's Pasture. It was the 95th busiest route, down from 93rd; ridership fell 1.5% over this period. 

As a local "senior's route," its ridership is good for the Carlingwood <-> Lincoln Fields trips, which are short, but poor for the Tunney's Pasture runs. Ridership per-trip is sits around 10 riders/trip. Ridership on weekends is in the sixties. 

New Ways to Bus will remove the Tunney's Pasture runs, which is technically a cut, but the trips are not being cut. Please note this in the charts below. 


Route 154
Route 154 runs between Lincoln Fields and Queensway Terrace. It is the 132nd busiest route, the least busy route on OC Transpo. This is down from 130th in 2023; ridership shrank 28.6%. 

Its ridership is ... low. Really low. There's one rider on the AM trip and three on the midday trip. There aren't very many of either. 

New Ways to Bus will remove this route, though given its use as an access to Pinecrest Garage, it may be cheap to install a regular schedule on it instead and watch ridership increase. 


Route 155
Route 155, like the 154, is a local route with a limited schedule, running to Queensway Terrace (but to Bayshore instead of Lincoln Fields). It is the 131st least busy route, with no change from 2023; ridership grew 40%, which means two extra daily riders. Yes, two. 

Like Route 154, this route could be cheaply implemented and used effectively to ferry buses from Pinecrest Garage to Bayshore. However, we don't get that; we get a useless route because the schedule is messed up, and not consistent at all with the trips people want to make. This is how we end up with a single rider on each trip, on average. 

New Ways to Bus will remove this route. 


Route 158
Returning to the land of the sane, Route 158 is a connection between Bayshore and the CANMET complex on Timm. It was the 130th busiest route, from 128th in 2023. Ridership grew 38.5% over this period. 

This route sees five riders/trip in the AM, and four riders/trip in the PM. This is okay for a route whose scheduled travel time is nine minutes (here's a hint, that's not happening).  

New Ways to Bus will not change this route. 


Thoughts

Nepean is a varied place with many different travel patterns, which is reflected in the ridership patterns ... or not ... of the transit routes within. The range of this and the next article is very broad, with trunks, locals, and limiteds; the travel patterns show the same trends as the rest of the city. High all-day travel on the trunks and urban routes, with lower ridership on the corridors that are more suburban in nature. 

If OC Transpo wants to see stronger ridership, we need imaginative leadership that will use routes to their full advantage, with cheaply designed schedules that suit travel patterns (looking at you, Queensway Terrace - you used to be able to support a full local route), better scheduling, and less circuitous routes for cheapness sake. 


Keep your eyes out for an article on the recent Transit Commission meeting, and part two of this analysis. Until next time. 

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