The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in its original form, in this PDF.
Introduction
Welcome to the first of tentatively seven (but probably ultimately more) articles analyzing ridership patterns on OC Transpo's bus routes. This will cover the Urban East and Beacon Hill areas, including Beacon Hill, Vanier, and Lowertown.
This article will include the following routes: <7>, [9], <12>, <14>, [15], [18], [19], [20], [21], [23], [24], and [27].
Overview
The area's ridership is characterized by very high ridership on its three trunk routes: the <7>, <12>, and <14>, the first and last of which only run half their routes in the actual area, and the remaining routes with far less ridership.
Across the analysis area, ridership grew on most routes with the exception of the low ridership 21 and 27. As such, boardings grew 7.7% in total, a little slower than the system-wide average of 9.5%.
Notably, ridership on the 27 grew 25%, by far the highest rate of growth (followed by the 9), representing growth in Wateridge. Also, it's easier to achieve a high rate of growth when the baseline is low.
While there are some weekday-only routes, the majority of routes in the area exceed the system average for weekend ridership; the 12 is among the highest, and the locals (18, 19, 20) are not low either. The 7 and 14 both have lower Sunday ridership, but fairly high Saturday ridership.
The dominance of the three frequent routes means that the area average is much higher than the system average for weekend ridership.
As the busiest period (per hour), the AM Peak can be compared to the other weekday periods to see where ridership may be concentrated.
Another comparison is to look at the per-trip ridership, with the caveat that many trips cross over the time boundaries, do not account for short-turns, do not account for trip length (comparing the long 7 to, say, the 27), or may be delayed or early. As such, this chart should be taken as a guide rather than an extremely accurate count.
Route 7
Route 7's ridership grew 4% from September 2023, which could come from Carleton University or Beechwood-St. Laurent; as an anecdote, route 6 stayed the same, while the Carleton routes grew in ridership.
This was enough to take the route from third to second highest ridership bus route, after the 88 and hopping above the 6.
Of note, the route's per-trip ridership is low in the AM, but stays mostly constant in the other periods. This is, I believe, is partly a result of the Brittany-Rideau trippers in both peaks and the Lansdowne-Rideau trips which operate only in the AM Peak. Additionally, the AM ridership is much weaker than PM ridership in general on this route. The route's weekend ridership is good, being in the top 20 for percentage of weekday ridership.
Route 9
The 9's growth from September 2023 ridership is 16.4%, the second highest in the area analysed and far above the system average.
The route is the 45th busiest route in the network, a jump from 47th the previous year.
This route's notability is the even AM and PM Peak ridership, the only all-day route in the Urban East area to do so. Its off-peak ridership is below-average, while weekend ridership is about average.
On a per-trip basis, the AM and PM Peaks show more boardings despite the presence of a tripper service in the peak direction, boosting frequency to 4 TPH; evenings have a large drop despite the route's, well, route through an urban area.
Route 12
The 12 is the only frequent route in the area with no overlap into other areas.
Its ridership is fifth highest on the bus system, a drop from fourth in September 2023. This is despite healthy ridership growth of 6.7%.
The 12 shows high midday and PM Peak ridership; despite being one of the few routes with frequent service in the evenings, or perhaps because of it, per-trip ridership falls in the evening.
Weekend ridership is among the highest in the network in both the weekday ratio and absolute ridership, and is perhaps buoyed by 10 minute service on Saturdays - I believe, the most frequent weekend service on the network.
Route 14
Of note, Route 14's route is split roughly 50/50 on the East End and Gladstone. I believe their ridership to be similar, as OC Transpo is the kind of organization to short-turn trips at Rideau if there is an imbalance.
In the September 2024 period, Route 14 is the sixth busiest bus route, the same as 2023. Growth is healthy on this route at 10.6%, above the system average.
Saturday ridership is a healthy 71.8%, but Sunday ridership is average, probably due to the lesser service operated on Sundays.
Route 15
A peak-only route connecting Gatineau to Rideau, before continuing through Vanier and turning towards La Cité, the 15's per-trip ridership is very high, and despite only running in peak periods, it is the 29th busiest route overall, the busiest limited route by far, and the sixth busiest local route. Growth is good at 12.4% since September 2023.
As seen in the riders per trip chart, the 15's per-trip ridership very high, which I believe is due to its dual usage: as a downtown-Gatineau connector, and as a supplemental to the 12 during the busiest peak periods, drawing away ridership from that route. It helps that the 15 operates at the same frequency in the peak direction. I expect the 17 to pick up some ridership when New Ways to Bus comes into effect in April.
The route does not operate in the off-peak.
Route 18
The 18 is the 41st busiest route in the system, a drop from 40th in September 2023. Growth was 6.4%, below the system average.
Weekend ridership is among the highest in the system, with both Saturdays and Sundays being in the 60-percents, and midday Sunday ridership notably being higher than Saturdays.
Route 19
The 19 is the 25th busiest route, moving up from 26th the year prior. Ridership grew 9.2% compared to the year prior.
Riders per trip is substantially higher than the 18/20, probably due to the 19's winding route, which serves much more trips just by being a snake through Lowertown, Vanier, and Belfast-Industrial.
PM ridership is above AM ridership, but only barely; midday ridership is high as well, meaning weekdays have even demand. Evenings have lower ridership. Weekend ridership is also fairly high at 66% on Saturdays and 57% on Sundays.
Route 20
The 20 grew 2.6% from 2023, a low rate of growth and within natural variation.
The 20 is the 49th busiest route, the same as 2023. Ridership is even in the daytime, with similar per-trip ridership until the evening when it falls.
Sunday ridership is higher than Saturday ridership, and Sundays have higher midday ridership than either Saturdays or weekdays. Despite 60 minute headways on Sunday evenings, evening ridership is still high on Sundays.
Route 21
The 21 is a limited service route to the industrial area on Canotek Road, with three outbound trips in the AM and two inbound trips in the PM. Per-trip ridership is similar in the two periods.
The route is the 126th busiest, dropping from 123rd in 2023. Ridership fell 2.6% from 2023, the largest shrinkage in the analysis area.
Route 23
Route 23 is a limited service route to Rothwell Heights. Note that the per-trip calculations are unidirectional; this route has very low ridership, just single digits boarding each round trip. This could be a function of its poor service, but I believe that the area is just unsuited to transit ridership.
The 23 is the 113th busiest route, from 112th in 2023. Ridership fell 1.0% percent since 2023.
Route 24
The 24 is the 33rd busiest route, the same as 2023. Ridership grew 6.5% since the September 2023 period.
The route has very low off-peak ridership, far below the system average on weekends and middays/evenings.
However, the per-trip ridership is similar across the daytime; probably a result of lower service levels outside of peak periods.
Route 27
The 27 is a limited route, running from St. Laurent to the new development at Wateridge. The route was the 84th busiest in the last period, growing from 88th the year prior, with a 25.4% ridership growth over this period.
Per-trip ridership is higher in the AM, shrinking over the day to the PM period.
Come April, this route will be replaced with a peak-only Route 17 directly to downtown along Montreal Road, and an extension of the 25, which will run much more frequently with a much better service span. The 25 will connect to Blair instead of St. Laurent. It will not run on weekends, which is a mystery to me, as it only takes one extra driver. 1000 service hours/year is not that much.
Oh well.
Conclusion
The Urban East area's ridership is held up by a few busy frequent routes, but the local routes fill crucial gaps too. The area's weekend ridership is robust, among the highest in the network, as is its off-peak weekday ridership.
This is a natural area for ridership growth, with high density, high infill, and a transit-oriented history., but reliability remains a concern. The focus should be on analysing service trends, improving the advertised service, and adjusting schedules to match ridership - which is, encouragingly, starting to happen with New Ways to Bus.
Until next time.
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