Ridership Analysis: Barrhaven-Riverside South

 

The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in its original form, in this PDF. 

This article will analyze ridership patterns in the Barrhaven and Riverside South areas. This includes routes [73], (74), (75), <80>, (99), [110], [170], [171], [173], [175], [176], [198], [199], (270), (271), (272), (273), (277), (278), and (299). 

Overview

In Barrhaven, ridership is dominated by the trunk routes, especially the 75; however, it is notable that many of the busiest routes are not Barrhaven-specific (the 99 serves Alta Vista, the 74/75/80 serve Nepean), so a numbers comparison is impossible, unlike in Orleans. 

Ridership grew on most routes in the area. Connexion routes had the largest growth, while a few of the limited routes lost riders. 

Weekend ridership is extremely poor, although this is likely a function of low service levels rather than low inherent ridership. It is worth noting that the weekend network has not changed substantially since the 2011 cuts, when Barrhaven was 25% smaller. 

Of the local routes, the 170 operates mostly full service on weekends, and receives much higher ridership. The trunk routes out of Barrhaven have more average ridership figures.  

This is backed, I believe, by the weekday comparisons. The local routes see passable off-peak ridership when they operate good off-peak service, including the 110, 170, 171, and 173. Poor weekend/evening service is, I believe, suppressing ridership. 

Route 73

A counterpeak route meant to serve the RCMP campus on Leikin and the mini industrial area on Bill Leathem, this route's ridership is fairly low given the long route through Nepean; it may be that people are not aware of its trunk function and wait for the 74/75, or that the demand is genuinely low. 

This is OC Transpo's 86th busiest route, down from 80th in 2023. Ridership dropped 2%, even as the parallel trunk routes grew. 

New Ways to Bus will turn this route into an all-day connection from Fallowfield to Limebank, with peak extensions to Tunney's Pasture. My unqualified opinion is that frequent, reliable trunk 74/75 service could offer a transfer to a higher frequency 73 at Fallowfield. 

Route 74

Route 74 is the 16th busiest bus route, with no change. Ridership grew 11.5% from 2023. 

The 74's ridership per trip is much lower than the 75. Its off-peak ratios are higher in the weekdays, but lower in evenings and weekends, reflecting the 74's lower service in those periods. Its ridership per trip is also much lower than the 75; it may be that Barrhaven Centre is a popular destination, or that the 75, being the flagship Barrhaven route, attracts ridership. 

The 74 trunk overlaps into Nepean. 

Route 75

Route 75 is the 4th busiest route in the system, and the busiest rapid route. This is increased from 5th place in 2023, while ridership grew 8%. 

Weekday ridership is low compared to the PM peak, but the PM Peak 75 has extremely high ridership. AM ridership is comparable to midday ridership, but per-trip boardings are respectable all day, and weekend ridership is decent as well. 

Note that the 75 overlaps as a trunk route in Nepean. 

Route 80

Route 80 is the 11th busiest bus line, up from 12th in 2023. Ridership grew 9%. 

The 80's weekday ridership is fairly even, with a small PM peak bump; weekend ridership is average, but this may be due to the reduced service levels and the heavy congestion on the Merivale corridor. 

The route's reliability is suspect, and even though only half service operates into Barrhaven, unreliability starts at Barrhaven Centre and gets worse going north, as outlined here. 

Route 80 also runs as a major route in Nepean. New Ways to Bus will extend 15 minute service from Merivale/Macfarlane into Barrhaven, ending at Nepean Woods; the extension to Barrhaven Centre is not long, and is worthwhile to finish as soon as possible. 

Route 99

Route 99 is OC Transpo's 23rd busiest route, from 24th in 2023. Ridership grew 8.8% from 2023. 

The 99, whose northern half (Greenboro <-> Limebank) is set to be replaced with Line 2, is very peak-oriented, with low weekend and off-peak ridership. Midday per-hour ridership is only 25% of the AM Peak; weekend ridership is also in the thirties. Per-trip ridership is also much lower in the off-peak. 

Route 110

Route 110, which also serves local purposes in Kanata, is the 55th busiest route and the 2nd busiest limited route, the same as 2023. Ridership fell 2%. 

Ridership in the off-peak is fairly good. Weekend ridership looks low, but the weekend service is extremely limited, and in that context, 20% is fairly good. 

Ridership per trip is low, especially with the route's long runtimes. OC Transpo seems to hope that sending the route to Limebank from Barrhaven Centre will improve its ridership. This route is too important in the network to axe, so I hope that its ridership increases. 

Route 170

Route 170 is the 52nd busiest route, from 50th in 2023. Ridership growth was 8.2% in the past year. 

The 170 has one of the highest weekend ridership ratios in the system, at 75% on Saturdays and 65% on Sundays; this is likely due to the lack of the 173 service on weekends, making the 170 the only West Barrhaven route that operates all day. 

On weekdays, AM ridership is very low compared to the PM, and midday ridership is not that much higher; evening ridership is weak as well. Ridership per trip is not that strong, sitting in the teens outside of the PM Peak. 

New Ways to Bus will replace this with the 70, a Limebank <-> Fallowfield route that serves much of Barrhaven with a spaghetti route. This route will run every 15 minutes during peak periods, welcome as the connexion routes that this route parallels are being eliminated. 

Route 171

Route 171 is the 63rd busiest bus route, from 61st last year; ridership grew 6.6%. 

Unlike the 170, the 171 only runs token weekend service, with correspondingly low ridership. Weekday off-peak ridership is strong, at 70% in the midday, though evening service is much lower, with lower ridership. Per trip ridership is in the high teens and low twenties. 

With New Ways to Bus, this route will be handed to an extension of the 170, now renumbered as the 70. 

Route 173

A local route that shares with Nepean, the 173 is the 65th busiest route, same as last year, with growth of 5.4%. 

Despite its lengthened route, the 173's boardings per trip are similar to the 170, though it doesn't reach the critical commercial hub at Citigate. Midday ridership is good at 80%. 

New Ways to Bus will effectively remove this route, though a replacement operating on Sherway-Kennevale will operate to Citigate. 

Route 175

Route 175 is the 99th busiest route, down from 98th in 2023; ridership growth was 11.9%. 

AM Peak ridership is much higher than PM Peak ridership, likely because of people timing themselves to the infrequent bus in the morning. Ridership per trip, and note that per-trip is one-way and not a loop, is in the high single digits outside the AM Peak. The ridership per trip is fairly consistent, with overall ridership dependent on the service operated. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate this route. 

Route 176

A limited route to Manotick, Route 176 is the 123rd busiest route, tied with the 114; ridership is up 9.1%, and it grew from 124th in 2023. 

Ridership per trip is very low, at an average of just 4 per trip. New Ways to Bus will remove this route. Manotick will instead receive a new Connexion route to Tunney's Pasture. 

Route 198

Route 198 is the 118th busiest route, tied with the 222. This is down from 112th in 2023, with ridership shrinking 4.5%. 

Ridership per trip averages in the high single digits. New Ways to Bus will remove the Borbridge extension, with the rest of the route continuing to operate. 

Route 199

This route is the 114th busiest route, with ridership down 7.1% from 2023. Last year, it was the 108th busiest route, tied with the 84 and 237. 

Route 199 operates as a peak service from Hurdman to the RCMP Campus on Leikin. Its per-trip ridership is 22 in the AM and 28 in the PM. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate this route. 

Connexion Routes

Like the other connexion routes, the Barrhaven 200s run higher ridership in the AM than the PM; I suspect this is because people time themselves to the Connexion routes in the morning, but board the first bus in the PM. 

Per trip ridership is respectable on most routes, achieving at least 20 rides and most routes getting 30 in the AM, with less in the PM. 

Route 270

Route 270 is the 101st busiest route, down from 100th in 2023. Ridership grew 10.2%. 

An hourly route, the 270 has 20 riders per trip. This route will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 271

Route 271's ridership grew 6.8%, placing it at 83rd busiest in the system, down from 78th last year. 

Route 271 achieves respectable ridership per trip, but will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus, and additional frequency added on the 70, which will parallel this route's local alignment. 

Route 272

Route 272 is the 75th busiest route, from 76th in 2023; ridership grew 18.6%. 

Route 272's AM ridership is much higher than its PM ridership, both per-trip and in total. This route will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 273

Route 273 is the 78th busiest route, up from 88th in 2023. Ridership grew 35.7% in that period. 

AM/PM ridership is fairly even, and this ridership growth means that per-trip ridership is around 30 in both periods. This route will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. With the western segment of the new 70 not connecting to Strandherd Station, I worry that ridership will decrease as people find faster alternatives - such as driving. 

Route 277

Route 277 is the 71st busiest route, up from 72nd in 2023; this makes it the busiest connexion route, overtaking the 294 in 2023. Ridership grew 23%. 

The only "main" Barrhaven connexion to be retained with New Ways to Bus, this route has 50 boardings per trip in the AM and 37 in the afternoon. Its weekly ridership is nearly 60% of the 171, whose service area overlaps. 

Peak service is very important in the suburbs. 

Route 278

Route 278 grew 14.4% in 2023; despite this, it dropped from 77th busiest to 79th busiest on the network.

Per-trip ridership varies in the AM/PM, but averages around 30. This route will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 299

Route 299 is OC Transpo's 90th busiest route, down from 83rd in 2023. Ridership fell 13.5% this period; notably though, this route's ridership comes from school trips. Without school trips, its ridership grew. 

Non-school ridership is around 20 per trip, low for a long route. However, with New Ways to Bus, it is being shortened, which would improve its financials. 

Thoughts

In Barrhaven, peak service is clearly the most important part of transit service. However, on many routes, there is indication that ridership is being suppressed by poor off-peak service, and New Ways to Bus is only a partial remedy. 

Trunk routes are a large part of ridership, but operation in Nepean muddies the analysis. Further focus on improving the reliability of trunk service, and placing service hours into more frequent local operation, would help with ridership. 

Like with Orleans, a central transfer point, probably Barrhaven Centre, would help improve ridership. 60% of Barrhaven trips stay within Barrhaven, and this is where the largest mode share gain would be achieved. 

Until next time.