Ridership Analysis: Nepean, Part II

 The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in its original form, in this PDF. 

Introduction

This article is the second of a two-part on Nepean, split down the middle. The first part can be found here. This will cover routes 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 96, 111, 186, 187, 258, and 282. 

Overview

Nepean is a mixed-ridership zone with both suburban and urban communities. While many of the urban communities are in the areas covered in Part 1, the major routes in this article are also among the busiest in the OC Transpo network. The suburbanity of south Nepean does not preclude good transit ridership. 

Ridership growth on this selection of routes is above average, and these routes are more self-contained than the previous batch; I think it's safe to say that growth comes from Nepean itself. Every route grew in ridership except the 186, which stayed the same. 

Weekend ridership is about average on most routes. The only real outliers are the 87, 96, and 111. 

On weekdays, ridership is pretty average compared to the AM peak. Trunk routes show the usual pattern of flatter ridership, while the locals have lower off-peak usage. 

Routes

Route 80

Route 80 is a frequent route running from Tunney's Pasture on Merivale Road towards Barrhaven. It was the 11th busiest route in 2024, up from 12th in 2023. Ridership grew 9.9%. 

Ridership on the 80 is good. It had 65 riders/trip in the AM, 50 in the midday and PM Peak, and 30 in the evenings; weekend ridership is close to average for the system overall. 

New Ways to Bus will extend frequent service from its current terminus south of West Hunt Club to Barrhaven, though curiously not to Barrhaven Centre. 

Route 81

Route 81 is a local route from Tunney's Pasture, running on Kirkwood through Carlington to Baseline. It was the 61st busiest route, down from 60th; ridership grew 7.6%. 

The route sees mediocre ridership across the day, with a flat pattern. Its ridership/trip figures stood at 15 over most of the day, dropping to five in the evenings. Weekend ridership is above average, but its weekday ridership is not good to begin with. 

New Ways to Bus will extend the route westwards on Iris and Dumaurier to Bayshore, with decreased frequencies on weekends. 

Route 82

Route 82 is a local route serving Craig Henry and Greenbank. It was the 32nd busiest route, up from 33rd in 2023. During this time, ridership growth was 12.2%. 

Route 82 shows decent ridership given its trip length, with very strong peak ridership. Peak period ridership topped 50 riders/trip, while midday ridership was 35 riders/trip and evening at 15 riders/trip. Weekend ridership is above average. 

New Ways to Bus will add another squiggle on Morrison, and truncate the Craig Henry branch at Baseline; in exchange, the western leg will run to Lincoln Fields instead of Bayshore. There will only be minor schedule changes. 

Route 83

Route 83 is a local route, a stub from Baseline through Tanglewood to Merivale. It was the 64th busiest route, down from 63rd the year prior. Ridership grew 4.7% during this period. 

This route shows a relatively peaked pattern, with AM Peak being by far the strongest ridership period. Its per-trip ridership was 15 in the AM, and 10 for the rest of the day - including evenings. Weekend ridership was somewhat above average. 

New Ways to Bus will replace Route 83 with an extended Route 53, which will run up Merivale (increasing one-seat rides) towards Tunney's Pasture. This represents a significant service increase for this route, and should increase ridership. 

Route 84

Route 84 is a local route running in a loop around Centrepointe. In 2024, it was the 110th busiest route in a tie with the 37 and the second least busy local; this compares to 2023, when it was the 108th busiest route, tied with the 199 and still the second least busy local. Ridership grew 9.4% this year. 

The route's ridership is peak-oriented, matching its schedule. On average, the route saw 5 riders per trip in the AM, and less than 2.5 in all other periods; note that each loop is two "trips" as OC Transpo signs the 84 to "Centrepointe" and "Baseline" both. Low PM ridership reflects the problem, wherein outbound passengers in the AM can time themselves to an 84 bus, but cannot do so with inbound transfers and work-schedules creating uncertainty in arrival time; this is more noticeable because most of the catchment is within walking distance from Baseline Station. Thus, AM ridership is much higher on this route. There is no weekend service. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate the route ... not really. But it may as well be eliminated, given both its short length and poor frequency. At least eliminating it would have raised hard questions by residents, who were not given access to the ever-changing frequencies until last summer, and most of whom can read a headline but not a schedule. Of course, this is a route that I use fairly often, so I am "biased." 

Route 85

Route 85 is a trunk route on Carling Avenue. It was the 7th busiest route with no change from 2023; ridership growth was 11.0%. 

As a major trunk route, Route 85 sees strong all-day ridership. AM ridership is 100 riders/trip; middays see 75, the PM Peak sees 85, and evenings see 30. Weekend ridership is only slightly above average. 

With New Ways to Bus, the route will be diverted towards Lees instead of Pimisi and Gatineau, gaining a crosstown connection but losing the downtown one-transfer ride. Service in some marginal off-peak periods will be reduced. 

Route 86

Route 86 is a local route running from Tunney's Pasture on Fisher and Meadowlands to Baseline. In 2024, it was the 26th busiest route with no change; ridership grew 10.2%. 

The route shows a mild peak-oriented ridership pattern. It saw 45 riders/trip in the AM and middays; 40 in the PM; and 20 in the evenings. Weekend ridership was average with Saturday and Sundays being very close; it's worth noting that Route 89 has these properties as well. 

New Ways to Bus will send the route down Fisher instead of Meadowlands, which is higher ridership; it will terminate at Antares/Auriga. The route will also lose its substantial redundancy with Route 89, which will be eliminated; this could cause capacity crunches, and I believe that Route 86 should have been converted to a frequent route as part of New Ways to Bus. This is made even worse by the cut in marginal off-peak service. 

Route 87

Route 87 is a frequent route running from Tunney's Pasture on Woodroffe to Baseline Station. It was the 43rd busiest route in 2024, and also the second least patronised frequent route; this is the same as 2023. Ridership growth over that year was 7.2%. 

Route 87 sees, abnormally, very weak AM ridership. There are 15 riders/trip in the AM; this rises (marginally due to rounding) to 20 in the midday and PM, then falls to 10 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is below average; whether due to poor service or poor demand is unclear. 

New Ways to Bus will not substantially modify Route 87. 

Route 88

Route 88 is a core route on Baseline, running from Hurdman across the city to Kanata. It is the busiest bus route on the network, and was the busiest in 2023; since then, ridership has grown 15.6%. 

Route 88 sees strong weekday all-day demand, with almost perfectly-average weekend demand (but weekday ridership is strong enough to ensure that it is the busiest route seven days a week). It sees 100 riders/trip in the AM, 120 in the midday, 95 in the PM, and 75 in the evenings. 

New Ways to Bus will cut the route back to Bayshore, with Kanata duties west of Baseline handled by Route 68 (and also creating a direct Baseline <-> Bayshore link, which is appreciated). Along the route, Kanata and Bells Corners will see minor improvements; Baseline west of the eponymous station will see a major increase in service; and Baseline east of the station will see minor, but fundamentally stupid cuts on Saturdays. 

Route 89

Route 89 is a local route, running on Fisher, Viewmount, and Colonnade. It was the 39th busiest route, up from 40th in 2023. Ridership growth was 11.0%. 

Route 89's southern branch is weaker than Route 86 on Meadowlands, and it is correspondingly weaker, despite similar service levels. Like Route 86, it has moderately peak-oriented ridership with lower, average demand on weekends; like Route 86, there is little difference in Saturday and Sunday demand. Ridership in the AM reaches 30 riders/trip; it falls to 25 in the midday and PM, and 10 in the evenings. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate this route without (for the most part) equal service increases on Fisher, thus halving service there. The 111 leg on Chesterton and the 89's jaunt into Colonnade will be replaced with Route 189, which runs somewhat equivalent service on weekdays and none at all on weekends. 

Route 96

Route 96 is a local route in South Nepean, running from Merivale on Macfarlane and West Hunt Club towards Greenboro. It was the 58th busiest route, down from 57th. Ridership grew 15.8%. 

The route has strong peak ridership, due to its service pattern; in the peak periods, it has 30 riders/trip, 20 in the midday, and 15 in the evenings. Weekend ridership, due to its high service levels, is among the highest in the system; I believe that this indicates latent demand for better weekday service as well. 

New Ways to Bus will move the route onto West Hunt Club and towards Baseline Station, Macfarlane service replaced with a parallel 117 service. There will be no level service changes. Until weekday service is half hourly or better, this route will not produce the ridership results that we want it to. 

Route 111

Route 111 is a trunk route from Carleton, running on Meadowlands and Viewmount to Baseline Station. It was the 8th busiest route with no change from 2023; ridership grew 13.3% during this period. 

The route shows strong all-day ridership. In the AM, it has 75 riders/trip, falling to 60 in the midday, 65 in the PM, and 25 in the evenings. Weekend ridership is below average, probably because much of its demand originates from Carleton University. 

Speaking of Carleton University, the service levels will change on this route; there are some increases and cuts, but overall they're a wash. The service is being removed from Viewmount, serving Meadowlands as a fast trunk (and possible 88 alternative) instead. Far more important is the withdrawal of all-trip Carleton service, with only half of weekday trips reaching Carleton (as opposed to every in the peaks and midday right now). This will have a major effect, I think, on ridership, and it won't be positive. If OC Transpo would reverse that change, then I think New Ways to Bus will be good for Route 111. 

Route 186

Route 186 is a local route, running the Meadowlands/Merivale ghost of the pre-2011 116 service. It was the 120th busiest route, down from 115th, with no change in ridership. 

The service sees 15 riders/trip in the AM and 20 in the PM, which is surprisingly good for an oddball service running a random diagonal pattern across the Nepean suburbs. There is no off-peak service. 

New Ways to Bus will remove the service. 

Route 187

Route 187 is a local route from Baseline, through the Greenbelt communities to Macfarlane. It was the 117th busiest route in 2024, down from 113th the year prior with ridership growth of 1.1%. 

In theory, it sees 11 riders/trip in the AM and 4 riders/trip in the PM, but 2/3 of its ridership (proven by a July/September comparison) comes from two round trips to Merivale High School. Independent of those trips, ridership is exceedingly low. 

New Ways to Bus will not change the service levels, but Macfarlane service will be removed and replaced with Route 117. 

Route 258

Route 258 is a connection the real name is stupid Connexion route through Crystal Beach and to Grandview. It was the 108th busiest route, up from 117th in 2023; ridership grew 66.7%. 

This shows 18 riders/trip in the AM and 11 in the PM. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate service, removing all service from Grandview and cutting choice to Crystal Beach. 

Route 282

Route 282 is a connexion route up Greenbank to Trend-Arlington. It was the 92nd busiest route, down from 89th in 2023. Ridership grew 8.2%. 

Its ridership is 30 riders/trip in the AM and half that in the PM, making Route 282 another route victim of the AM/PM problem (riders will time themselves to an infrequent AM bus and take a frequent route back). 

New Ways to Bus will axe this route, and riders will have to take the ever-meandering Route 82 to Greenbank (did I mention 173 service on Greenbank is also going away?) and Trend-Arlington. 

That's cheery. 

Conclusion

That marks the end of the ridership analysis; I plan to repeat this exercise after New Year's of 2026, with New Ways to Bus operational by then. 

This series has had a strong emphasis on New Ways to Bus; the current network will be ended in two months, so any discussion of ridership felt like it needed that addition. I hope you learned something from my words - I think I did ... 

Thank you for reading this series, and my site in general. I will see you next time, hopefully with the Route 51 service snapshot.