Ridership Analysis: Alta Vista and Greenboro

 The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in this PDF. 

Introduction

This article will analyze ridership patterns in the Alta Vista and Greenboro areas, encompassing routes <6>, [26], <40>, [42], <44>, (45), [46], [47], [48], [49], [55], <90>, [92], [93], [96], (97), (98), [140], [141], [190], [197], (290), (291), and (294). 

Overview

The Alta Vista is home to a variety of local, limited, and frequent/rapid routes, and their ridership figures are sometimes the opposite of what one might expect to find. In Alta Vista, ridership is defined by a wide spread across a large number of routes, some more critical than others. 

Ridership growth was stable across the area. Most routes clustered around the average, but a couple of routes (including the frequent 40 and 90) shrunk, while a few low-ridership routes grew out of the chart. 

Weekend ridership generally meets the system average on busy routes, with a sharper Sunday drop off on some routes but not others (the reasons for which will soon become clear). 

Ridership in the midday generally meets the system average on routes that run a decent service. PM ridership is also mostly average, while evening ridership is especially high on both the 97 and 98, and average on the other routes. 

Route 6

Route 6, running the length of Bank Street, is the network's third busiest route, down from second in 2023. Ridership grew 0.7% over this period. 

As a key route running on Bank Street, the 6's ridership per-trip is high. AM ridership is over 100 riders/trip, dropping to around 70 in the midday and PM, then 60 in the evenings, a very high level for OC Transpo's evening service. It has strong midday ridership, but evening ridership is rather average. Saturday ridership is at 75% of weekday ridership, one of the highest rates in the network, and Sunday ridership is 55%, still high. 

New Ways to Bus will revise the schedule to run every 7.5 minutes on the core section of Bank, during peak periods and in the peak direction only. However, this will help alleviate crowding issues and bring more regular service to Bank St, which is currently covered by a bevy of incoherent tripper and regular services during peak periods. 

Route 26

Route 26 is a local route running in a loop from Blair around Pineview. It is the 73rd busiest route, down from 70th, and grew 16.5% in ridership since 2023. 

The 26 has high AM ridership, with reduced midday and PM peak ridership. Note that the per-trip data counts a loop as two trips; AM ridership reaches 30 riders/loop, midday ridership 15 riders/loop, and other periods see only single digits. 

This, I suspect, is due to the route's low frequency and short distance to Blair and/or Route 25, as riders time themselves to inbound 26 trips, but walk or ride the 25 on the outbound trips. 

I need a name for this, don't I ... 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate off-peak service on this route. 

Route 40

Route 40 is technically a frequent route, but in practice, a local route between St. Laurent and Greenboro, with a frequent shuttle between St. Laurent and Elmvale. It is the network's 24th busiest route, down from 22nd; ridership shrunk 6.3%, a rather large shrinkage. 

Across the route, the AM period has the highest ridership, with the midday and PM periods being even, and evenings being low on riders. Given that half of the trips are trippers and therefore do not run the full St. Laurent <-> Greenboro route, ridership per-trip is good at 45 in the AM, 30 in the midday, 35 in the PM, and lower in the evenings. Weekend ridership is above the system average. 

New Ways to Bus will remove this route from its local wanderings in Greenboro, giving it over to a Route 43, which will run less frequently. Instead, the route will run to Blossom Park, giving that neighbourhood a northbound connection. Frequent service on weekends will be eliminated, but as Route 41 will introduce redundancy between St. Laurent and Elmvale, this is not as large of a cut as it seems. 

 Route 42

Route 42 mostly serves industrial areas (including Industrial Road) between Blair and Hurdman. It is the 51st busiest route, down from 49th in 2023; this comes with a gain of 8.3% in ridership. 

Ridership per-trip is fairly even across the day, around 20, dropping in the evenings. It has strong evening ridership, but okay midday ridership; weekend ridership is healthy. New Ways to Bus will retain the routing, but frequent peak period service will be removed. 

Route 44

Route 44 is a frequent route running on Alta Vista and to Herongate. It is the 17th busiest route, up from 18th, with a ridership growth of 11.2% since 2023. 

The route's ridership pattern is even through the day, around 90% of per-hour ridership in both the midday and PM peak, dropping in the evenings. Weekend ridership is above average. 

The route does about 40 boardings per-trip in the daytime, making it fairly productive. 

With New Ways to Bus, frequent service on Saturdays will be dropped. This will raise per-trip boardings above weekday levels, which should not be acceptable, but is acceptable, in Ottawa. 

Route 45

Route 45 is a shuttle from Hurdman Station to the TOH Campus on Smyth. It is the 50th busiest route, up from 51st, while ridership grew 16.1% from 2023. 

Noting that per-trip ridership is half a loop, ridership is in the low teens per-trip through the day, dropping in the evenings. Weekend ridership is low, at 25% on both days, but the route shows even ridership across the weekday. 

New Ways to Bus will not change the 45. 

Route 46

Route 46 is a local route, albeit the busiest in the system, and with frequent weekday schedules. It is the 14th busiest bus route, the same as 2023, with a ridership growth of 3.4%. 

It has flat ridership after the AM Peak, with the PM seeing barely an increase in per-hour ridership at all. The 46 sees average weekend ridership. Per-trip ridership starts at 50 in the AM, dropping to 45 in the midday, 40 in the PM, and 30 in the evenings. 

New Ways to Bus will renumber the route to Route 41, and modify it to run from St. Laurent instead of Hurdman, becoming a second Elmvale <-> St. Laurent connector, with the Coronation segment taken over by the 48; it will also run on Heron instead of Baycrest, removing it from the heart of Herongate. Additionally, it will see a minor service increase. 

Route 47

Route 47 is a minor route connecting the industrial areas of the east end to St. Laurent. It is the 85th busiest route, down from 79th in 2023. Its ridership grew 2.7% in that period. 

The route is busiest in the morning, with ridership dropping in the afternoons, in both absolute and per-trip terms. Morning trips gather 25 riders on average, while afternoon trips only see around 20. 

New Ways to Bus will not modify this route. 

Route 48

Route 48 is a local route connecting Kilborn to Elmvale, Billings Bridge, and Hurdman. It was the 36th busiest route, down from 37th; its ridership grew 10.4% over that period. 

The 48 is a very peak-oriented route, with high ridership in the peak periods and less ridership in the off-peaks, though Saturday ridership is average and Sunday ridership can be attributed to its decreased service. Peak period trips gather an average of 50 or more riders per trip, while midday ridership is 30 riders/trip. 

New Ways to Bus will heavily modify the route. It will run from Carleton through Old Ottawa South to Billings Bridge, then on Kilborn to Elmvale, and then on Coronation to Hurdman. In addition, peak period service will increase to 15 minutes. 

Route 49

Route 49 is a local route on Pleasant Park, connecting to Hurdman. It was the 76th busiest route, up from 81st busiest, with a ridership growth of 32.7% in that period. 

The route's ridership is much lower than the parallel 48, with around 15 riders/trip in peak periods and 10 off-peak, despite similar peak service levels. Off-peak service is very poor on this route. 

New Ways to Bus will send the route to Billings Bridge instead of Hurdman, with no changes in service. 

Route 55

Route 55 is the second busiest local route, running a frequent schedule from Elmvale up Smyth, then west on Carling to Westgate. It was the 22nd busiest route, up from 23rd in 2023, with ridership growth of 13.2%. 

The route's AM ridership is around 55 per-trip, dropping to 35 for the midday and PM periods. Weekend ridership is below average. 

New Ways to Bus will chop the route up, with E-W service handed over to the 85 and Smyth service to the 5. 

Route 90

Route 90 is a frequent route, running in the Uplands and Mooney's Bay communities. It was the 20th busiest route, down from 17th; ridership shrank 1.1% over that period. 

The route, like many others, show even midday and PM ridership, somewhat below that of the AM period. AM ridership is 45 riders/trip, while midday and PM periods are at around 35. Weekend ridership is below average. 

New Ways to Bus will not modify this route. 

Route 92

Route 92 is a local route connecting the Uplands area to Greenboro and Hurdman. It was the 42nd busiest route, up from 43rd the year prior; ridership grew 10.2% over that period, in contrast to the nearby 90. 

The 92 shows very high AM ridership, compared to the midday and PM periods. Its weekend ridership is around 60% on Saturdays and 40% on Sundays, which is above average. Ridership per trip is as high as 40 on average in the AM, dropping to the mid-20s in the midday and PM. 

New Ways to Bus will remove weekend service, and claw back the route from Hurdman in the off-peak, instead ending at Walkley. Peak period trips will meander through Herongate before running to Hurdman, a major service reduction. 

Route 93

Route 93 is a local route connecting Blossom Park and Findlay Creek. It was the 28th busiest route, up from 27th in 2023, with ridership growth of 13.5%. 

This route has very high peak period ridership, with midday ridership being 40% of AM ridership per-hour, and evening ridership at 20%. Weekend ridership is below average. Peak ridership, per-trip, is in the fifties; midday ridership is around 35 per-trip and evenings are at 20. 

New Ways to Bus will hand over the Blossom Park section of this route to the 40, while the Findlay Creek portion will become a shuttle to Leitrim Station on Line 2. 

Route 96

Route 96 is a local route from Greenboro on West Hunt Club to Merivale. This route was the 58th busiest on the network, down from 57th, with ridership growth at 15.8%. 

Route 96 has one of the highest weekend ridership ratios, with weekend service above weekday levels; weekday ridership is, I believe, suppressed by poor service. Per-trip ridership is around 30 in the peaks, and 20 in the midday. 

New Ways to Bus will (re)-renumber it to the 116, and extend the route to Baseline Station, and remove it from Merivale and Macfarlane. I am worried about reliability, but we shall see. There will be no service increases. 

Route 97 

Route 97 is a trunk route operating on the Southeast Transitway to the Airport. It was the 19th busiest route, with no change; ridership grew 7.9% since 2023. 

Route 97 has one of the highest weekend ridership ratios on the system, at around 75%. It has weak AM ridership, with strong midday, PM, and evening ridership. Per-trip ridership ranges from 25 in the AM, to 30 in the midday and PM, to 15 in the evenings. 

New Ways to Bus will eliminate this route. 

Route 98

Route 98 is a trunk route running from Hawthorne and up the Southeast Transitway. In 2024, it was the 15th busiest route, with no change from 2023, but a 7.5% ridership increase. 

Route 98 has strong all-day ridership, with an even pattern across the day, dropping in the evenings. Per-trip ridership is in the fifties in peak periods, forties in the midday, and around 30 in the evening.  Weekend ridership is above average. 

New Ways to Bus will add peak period service to increase capacity with the cancellation of the 97. It will not see increases in the off-peak, which is not a major problem with 16 trips/hour north of Billings Bridge, but which will result in massively decreased service between Billings Bridge and South Keys. 

Route 140

Route 140 is a midday connector between Herongate and Billings Bridge. It is the network's 94th busiest route, with no change from 2023. Ridership grew 7.7% over that period. 

This route has around 9 riders/trip across its service period. It will be eliminated in New Ways to Bus. 

Route 141

Route 141 is a local route that connects Heron Park to Billings Bridge. It is the 127th busiest route, down from 120th and a tie with the 165 in 2023. It shrank 14.1 % since then. 

This route shows around 5 riders/trip except in the PM, when ridership is double that. It will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 190

Route 190 is an irregular route to Mooney's Bay. It was the 125th busiest route, up from 127th busiest; ridership grew 48.1% over that period. 

It shows low ridership, with around 10-15 riders/trip. It will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 197

Route 197 connects Uplands Park to Greenboro. It was the 93rd busiest route, up from 95th; ridership grew 12.4% from 2023. 

It shows decent ridership, with 17 trips/loop (note that each trip is a loop) in the AM, 10 in the midday, and less in the PM. Weekend ridership is low. New Ways to Bus will not modify this route. 

Route 290

Route 290 is a Connexion route to Mooney's Bay. It is the 98th busiest route, down from 96th in 2023, with ridership shrinkage of 2.4% over this period. 

Like many similar routes, it shows higher AM than PM ridership; its per-trip ridership is in the teens. It will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 291

Route 291 is a Connexion route to Herongate. It is the 81st busiest route, up from 84th, with ridership growth of 20.8% since 2023. 

It, too, has higher AM ridership than PM ridership. AM ridership per trip is around 35, while PM ridership is 20 per trip. It will be removed with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 294

Route 294 is a Connexion route to Blossom Park and Findlay Creek. It is the second busiest Connexion route, and 72nd overall, down from 71st and busiest Connexion in 2023. It grew 23.8% over this period. 

It has very similar AM and PM ridership, with per-trip figures around 45. New Ways to Bus will cut the route to Greenboro, and it will only serve Blossom Park, with the Findlay Creek portion taken over by the 94. This may prove fatal to ridership, with a two-transfer ride to destinations on Line 1 (Hurdman and Bayview do not make good origin-destination points). 

Conclusion

The Alta Vista area blurs the line between frequent and regular service, even moreso with its mix of urban and suburban areas. Trunks routes are still a large part of ridership, like always, but local ridership is very high as well. 

New Ways to Bus comes with a few positive and many negative changes that will increase crowding in this area, with few service improvements to make up for it. Interoperation mainly affects the 6, 55, and 96, and ridership is still high without those routes. It makes up a crucial part of OC Transpo operations, which is being neglected with the service changes and lack of investment. We need more weekend service here, we need increased trunk service on the Southeast Transitway, and we need the 40 to run frequently throughout, getting higher service levels across this area. The prognosis is not good. 

Whew, that was depressing. Stay warm and stay safe, I'll see you next time.