Ridership Analysis: Inner Southwest

 The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet, or in its original form, in this PDF. 

Introduction

This article will analyse ridership patterns in Westboro, the Glebe, and other urban areas in the southwest. This includes routes R2 (now B2), [5], <6>, <7>, <10>, <11>, <14>, [16], [54], [55], [56], <85>, and [114]. 

Overview

This service area is heavily populated by frequent routes with high ridership, as it is one of the busiest areas for OC Transpo ridership. 

Ridership grew on every route in the area, though the growth rate of some routes was higher than on others - notably, the Bank Street buses (6/7) grew far below the system average, though other trunk routes had good growth rates. 

Weekend ridership is generally strong, with most routes reaching the system average, including the trunk routes. 

All-day ridership is strong, with high midday and PM ridership compared to the AM average. Evening ridership is generally average. 

Route 2

Route 2 is the replacement bus for the now-opened Line 2. Running from South Keys to Bayview, it was the 9th busiest bus (though certainly no more), with annual ridership growth of 12.6%. 

Most of its ridership comes from Carleton University. As expected, ridership is almost even from the AM to the PM, with around 50 riders/trip, and less in the evenings. Similarly, ridership is below average on weekends. This route will be removed with New Ways to Bus, being replaced with the train (!). 

Route 5

Route 5 is a local route from Rideau to Billings Bridge through Old Ottawa South. It was the 45th busiest route, down from 42nd in 2023; ridership grew 5.3%. 

It shows regular ridership from the AM to the PM, around 30 riders/trip. Evening ridership is about 10 riders/trip, while weekend ridership is about average. 

With New Ways to Bus, Route 5 will be redirected to Elmvale, taking over the eastern leg of Route 55, and will receive a major service increase. Route 18 will be extended to follow the existing alignment towards Billings Bridge. 

Route 6

Route 6, running the length of Bank Street, is the network's third busiest route, down from second in 2023. Ridership grew 0.7% over this period. 

As a key route running on Bank Street, the 6's ridership per-trip is high. AM ridership is over 100 riders/trip, dropping to around 70 in the midday and PM, then 60 in the evenings, a very high level for OC Transpo's evening service. It has strong midday ridership, but evening ridership is rather average. Saturday ridership is at 75% of weekday ridership, one of the highest rates in the network, and Sunday ridership is 55%, still high. 

New Ways to Bus will revise the schedule to run every 7.5 minutes on the core section of Bank, during peak periods and in the peak direction only. However, this will help alleviate crowding issues and bring more regular service to Bank St, which is currently covered by a bevy of incoherent tripper and regular services during peak periods. 

Route 7

Route 7 serves the central portion of Bank Street, Beechwood, and northern St. Laurent. It is the network's second busiest route, up from third in 2023; during this period, ridership grew 4.2%. 

Compared to its sister route, Route 6, this route grew faster, indicating higher demand on outer St. Laurent and/or to Carleton University. Due to its many trippers, rides per trip are 50 in the AM, but grow to be around 80 for the rest of the day, including evenings. Its weekend ridership is high, while off-peak ridership is about average for the network. 

New Ways to Bus will remove the trippers and assign them to Route 6 and 17, an ostensible cut, but frequent service will be introduced to Beechwood and St. Laurent on Saturdays, a real improvement. 

Route 10

Route 10 is a trunk route running from Lyon Station on Bronson to Carleton University, then up the Transitway to Hurdman Station. 

As a university route, Route 10, like the R2, has even weekday ridership, but low weekend ridership. The service has around 50 riders/trip through the day, and dropping to 30/trip in the evenings. 

New Ways to Bus will extend the route to Lees and Main Street, including a direct ride to Rideau, which is long overdue (however, Rideau trips will only operate every 30 minutes), while Saturday service will be cut to 30 minutes, leaving riders with a ridership/trip similar to weekdays. 

Route 11

Route 11 is a trunk route running on Richmond Road through Westboro, Lincoln Fields, and Chinatown. In 2024, it was the 12th busiest route, down from 10th in 2023. Its ridership grew 1.5% over that period. 

Like many other routes in this area, Route 11 sees strong all-day and weekend ridership. Daytime ridership is flat, with a drop in the evenings; it sits at 45 boardings/trip in the daytime and 20 boardings/trip in the evenings. Due to the route's high level of service, its weekend ridership ratio is one of the highest in the network - but not for long. 

New Ways to Bus delivers a significant weekend service cut savings and efficiencies, shooting weekend boardings per trip to nearly double those of weekdays. Luckily, we're sure to drive ridership away with these cuts, and overcrowding will not be a concern for long. 

Route 14

Route 14 is a trunk route, operating on Gladstone, Elgin, Rideau, and Macarthur from Westboro to Vanier. It was the 6th busiest route, with no change from 2023; ridership grew 11.8%. 

Route 14 is too, a "flat" route, with little change from the AM to the PM. Ridership per trip is around 80, probably an even split between Gladstone and Macarthur (OC Transpo would no doubt short-turn trips if there was a significant ridership discrepancy). Possibly due to its service, ridership is high on Saturdays but average on Sundays. 

New Ways to Bus will bring a minor cut in service on Saturdays. 

Route 16

Route 16 is a local connecting Westboro, Scott Street, and Sandy Hill. It was the 40th busiest route, up from 44th in 2023, with ridership growth of 24.8%. 

Route 16 has above average Saturday ridership and average Sunday ridership, which is impressive given the truly abysmal service operated on Sundays. Ridership is highest in the AM, dropping throughout the day; rides per trip is 40 in the AM, 15 in the midday (though half of trips are short-turns parallel to Line 1), 30 in the PM, and 15 in the evening. 

New Ways to Bus will split the route into two, with the eastern portion handed to the 10 and the western segment handed to the 12; the Westboro add-on will be assigned to Route 81. This represents a service cut for the Scott Street portion on weekdays, with no change on weekends. 

Route 54

Route 54 is a local loop around Tunney's Pasture and Parkdale. It was the 124th busiest route, down from 119th; since 2023, it grew 1.2%. 

Route 54 suffers from the "timing problem" (an interim name, I'm sure) - where infrequent routes see higher AM ridership as people "time" themselves to departures, but will travel on other, more frequent routes in the PM. Riders per loop is 4 in the AM and around 2 elsewhere. Weekend ridership is low, but so is service. 

Route 54 will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Route 55

Route 55 is the second busiest local route, running a frequent schedule from Elmvale up Smyth, then west on Carling to Westgate. It was the 22nd busiest route, up from 23rd in 2023, with ridership growth of 13.2%. 

The route's AM ridership is around 55 per-trip, dropping to 35 for the midday and PM periods. Weekend ridership is below average. 

New Ways to Bus will chop the route up, with E-W service handed over to the 85 and Smyth service to the 5. 

Route 56

Route 56 is a local route connecting Tunney's Pasture to the Civic Hospital, with peak extensions to King Edward. It was the 57th busiest route, up from 58th in 2023, with growth of 17.0%. 

Route 56 suffers from the "timing problem": ridership in the AM is nearly double, per-hour, as the PM period, while off-peak ridership is very low. Weekend ridership is around 7% of weekday ridership; AM ridership is around 25/trip, and PM ridership is 15/trip, but midday ridership is around 8/trip, and evening ridership is even lower.

New Ways to Bus will extend service to King Edward on weekends, but bafflingly, will withdraw midday service. I believe that this is a service cut they executed after the release of the initial plan, but forgot to do the same on weekends. 

Route 85

Route 85 is a key trunk route on Carling Avenue. In 2024, it was the 7th busiest route with no change from 2023, but a ridership increase of 11.0%. 

Route 85 shows all-day ridership with small peak increases. Per-trip ridership is 100 in the AM, 85 in the PM, 75 in the midday, and around 30 in the evenings. It shows average weekend ridership, around 55% on Saturdays and 45% on Sundays. 

New Ways to Bus will remove the route from its (unreliable) operation on Preston to Gatineau, and will send it east towards Lees Station instead, a mimicry of the current 55 operation. Some marginal off-peak cuts will be executed. 

Route 114

Route 114 is a limited route running two trips from Carlington to downtown. It was the 122nd busiest route, up from 126th in 2023; ridership grew 17.9%. It shows a ridership per trip of around 17. 

This route will be eliminated with New Ways to Bus. 

Conclusions

The Inner Southwest area has a strong concentration of high-ridership routes with (relatively) high ridership. These routes show strong all-day and weekend ridership, with relatively weak peaks; in response to this demand, New Ways to Bus will reduce off-peak service. 

Stupid, isn't it? 

There are, for sure, some efficiencies and some duplicative routes to find in this service area. But if OC Transpo wants to grow, rather than shrink, the City needs to find the money for reliable service and increased service in this area - especially on Routes 6 and 85. Service should be improved, if we want to grow ridership in this already ridership-rich zone. 

Next, I'll (probably) look at the disbanding of the LRT Sub-Committee. See you there.